Australia’s New Cap on International Student Visas: A Comparative Analysis of Visa Approval Rates and University Enrolments
Australia has recently announced a significant policy change for international students that will affect those looking to study in the country starting from 2025. The new cap, set at 270,000 new student visas for the year 2025, marks a return to pre-pandemic levels and aims to regulate international student numbers. This limit is designed to address housing shortages and maintain a balance between domestic and international enrolments in higher education institutions.
However, this change may have a significant impact on students from various countries as the approval rate for Australian study visas varies greatly by region. Here are some insights on visa success rates and how this cap could influence student opportunities:
The table below breaks down the visa success rates for students from various countries and highlights the proportion of international students currently enrolled at major Australian universities.
Visa Success Rates by Country
| Country | Visa Lodged | Approval Rate (%) |
|---|---|---|
| Pakistan | 10,200 | 46.6 |
| Nigeria | 1,392 | 47.6 |
| Nepal | 17,376 | 60.7 |
| India | 47,456 | 68.5 |
| Kenya | 3,586 | 69.5 |
| Bhutan | 4,579 | 82.1 |
| Bangladesh | 6,331 | 89.6 |
| Philippines | 2,771 | 89.6 |
| Sri Lanka | 6,251 | 90.6 |
| Vietnam | 9,154 | 91.1 |
| Cambodia | 1,216 | 94.6 |
| China | 66,300 | 97.2 |
| Hong Kong | 2,775 | 97.2 |
| Singapore | 2,003 | 97.9 |
| Indonesia | 3,993 | 98.0 |
| Malaysia | 3,073 | 98.0 |
| South Korea | 1,777 | 98.2 |
| Saudi Arabia | 1,121 | 98.3 |
| Taiwan | 1,536 | 98.8 |
University International Student Enrolment Data (2023)
| University | Onshore International Students (%) | 2019 NOSC | 2023 NOSC | Indicative 2025 ISP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Australian Catholic University | 13% | 1,273 | 1,580 | 1,700 |
| Australian National University | 40% | 2,807 | 3,972 | 3,400 |
| Central Queensland University | 23% | 3,752 | 4,681 | 4,700 |
| Charles Darwin University | 26% | 523 | 1,997 | 2,200 |
| Curtin University | 17% | 2,110 | 3,646 | 3,300 |
| Deakin University | 21% | 5,768 | 5,448 | 5,800 |
| Edith Cowan University | 19% | 2,488 | 3,722 | 3,600 |
| Federation University Australia | 35% | 2,418 | 2,306 | 3,100 |
| Griffith University | 20% | 2,830 | 3,817 | 3,700 |
| James Cook University | 23% | 1,135 | 1,962 | 2,200 |
| La Trobe University | 21% | 3,660 | 4,095 | 4,100 |
| Macquarie University | 23% | 4,036 | 4,556 | 4,500 |
| Monash University | 33% | 9,998 | 8,310 | 10,000 |
| Murdoch University | 19% | 3,124 | 4,618 | 4,500 |
| Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology (RMIT) | 29% | 6,599 | 6,409 | 6,600 |
| University of Melbourne | 41% | 8,600 | 10,000 | 9,300 |
| University of New South Wales | 39% | 7,883 | 11,075 | 9,500 |
| University of Sydney | 25% | 8,600 | 12,790 | 12,000 |
| University of Queensland | 39% | 6,888 | 7,040 | 7,050 |
| University of Technology Sydney | 25% | 4,548 | 4,779 | 4,800 |
2025 Visa Cap Distribution
The 270,000 student visa cap set for 2025 is divided into the following categories:
- 145,000 visas for publicly funded universities
- 30,000 visas for other institutions
- 95,000 visas for vocational education and training (VET) programs
Note: Students applying for standalone English courses and certain regional programs are exempt from this cap, offering alternative pathways for international students who might otherwise face competition in university slots.
Insights on Visa Success Rates by Country
The visa success rates highlight significant disparities in approval percentages across different countries. For instance, Pakistan and Nigeria exhibit relatively low approval rates of 46.6% and 47.6%, respectively, indicating that students from these nations face significant challenges in securing student visas to Australia. Countries like Nepal and India, with approval rates of 60.7% and 68.5%, fare moderately better, though these figures still reflect the potential hurdles students may encounter during the application process. On the other end of the spectrum, countries such as China (97.2%) and Singapore (97.9%) enjoy exceptionally high approval rates, which may suggest that these nations have streamlined processes or more favorable conditions when it comes to Australian visa applications. Factors such as economic stability, political relations, and the quality of applicants from specific countries could be contributing to the variance in success rates. Overall, students from countries with lower visa approval rates may need to demonstrate stronger ties to their home countries, financial stability, and academic preparedness to increase their chances of securing a visa.
Prospective Australian University Capping for 2025
Australia’s new cap of 270,000 student visas for 2025 will limit the intake for universities, with 145,000 visas allocated to publicly funded institutions. Universities such as Monash University and the University of Sydney, which already have high international enrolments, may experience heightened competition for admission. As shown in the table, Monash University is projected to host 10,000 international students in 2025, up from 8,310 in 2023, while the University of Melbourne is set to enroll 9,300 students. Meanwhile, smaller universities such as Charles Darwin University and James Cook University have lower international enrollments, projected at 2,200 each, suggesting that students may find it relatively easier to secure spots at these institutions compared to larger universities. The caps, combined with the already selective visa approval processes, mean that prospective students will need to be even more competitive in their applications, both in terms of academic merit and financial stability. Furthermore, certain vocational and English language programs remain uncapped, providing an alternative route for those struggling to secure university admission under the new restrictions.
Interrelation Between Visa Success Rates and University Caps
The interrelation between visa success rates and the new university capping for 2025 reflects a growing challenge for international students, especially those from countries with lower approval rates. Countries like Pakistan and Nigeria, which have visa approval rates below 50%, may face compounded difficulties as university spots become increasingly limited. Students from these nations, already battling low success rates, will need to contend with intense competition for the limited number of available visas under the cap. On the other hand, students from countries with higher visa approval rates, like China and Singapore, might benefit from both a smoother visa process and greater access to university spots, given their historical preference in visa approvals. In essence, students from countries with lower visa approval rates might face a two-fold barrier: first, securing a visa, and second, competing for limited university slots under the cap. This dynamic underscores the importance of thorough preparation, strong academic credentials, and expert guidance to navigate the competitive landscape of Australian higher education.
Conclusion:
With the cap on student visas coming into effect in 2025, international students should prepare thoroughly and seek expert guidance to enhance their chances of success. Consult with Aura Visa & Education Consultancy for personalized advice on how to navigate these changes and increase your chances of securing admission to your dream university in Australia.
Contact Us:
- Email: info@auravisa.in
- Phone: +91-8219712693
- Website: auravisa.in
